000
WTNT41 KNHC 040242
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012
 
THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EMERGED FROM WEST AFRICA YESTERDAY QUICKLY
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP
CONVECTION TODAY. THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
CENTER DUE TO THE IMPINGING EFFECTS OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.0
FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB...AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
PERSISTED AND IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE THAT TIME. THUS ADVISORIES
ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. IT APPEARS THAT THE
GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE WAS AIDED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTIVELY-COUPLED KELVIN WAVE AS DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM
SUNY-ALBANY.

MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT...AS THE
SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. FINDING THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
SUBSTANTIALLY AIDED BY SOME SSMI AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM
NRL. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. AFTER ABOUT TWO
DAYS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE WEAKENING AND
THUS ADVECTED ALONG WESTWARD BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE TCVA CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS.

WHILE THE CYCLONE UNDERWENT GENESIS RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...IT MAY BE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER.  CURRENTLY THE
CYCLONE IS BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. 
WHILE THIS SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT A DAY...THE COMBINATION OF ONLY
LUKEWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAIRLY DRY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO PEAK ONLY AS A LOW-END TROPICAL
STORM.  AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAKENING AND
IT MAY NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FOUR OR FIVE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL LGEM AND SHIPS
MODELS AND THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WITH A BIT MORE
EMPHASIS ON THE LATTER.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 13.8N  27.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 14.5N  29.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 15.1N  31.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 15.4N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 15.6N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 16.2N  41.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 16.5N  47.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0000Z 16.5N  53.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA