000
WTNT41 KNHC 220843
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012
 
GOES-E SHORTWAVE AND ENHANCED BD-CURVE INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW BANDING
REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CYCLONE.  ALTHOUGH THIS DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND IS MORE THAN
LIKELY TEMPORARY...GIVEN THE HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...I
HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN ALBERTO AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  NOAA BUOY 41002 LOCATED ABOUT 65 NMI EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 33 KT.
STRONG 50-60 KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 22 DEGREES CELSIUS OR LESS SHOULD PROMOTE FURTHER
WEAKENING AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/13.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATION IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...ALL OF
WHICH SHOW DISSIPATION IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 32.0N  75.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 33.4N  73.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 35.5N  71.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1800Z 37.5N  68.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS