000
WTNT41 KNHC 031445
TCDAT1
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
1100 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011
 
SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT OPHELIA LOST TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS THE CENTER PASSED OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA
SHORTLY AFTER 1200 UTC.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED AT SOME OF THE OBSERVING SITES ON THE AVALON PENINSULA...
HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE REMAINED OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN A
DAY OR SO.  THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE
AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER.
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON OPHELIA.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 48.1N  52.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  04/0000Z 50.0N  43.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  04/1200Z 52.0N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  05/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN