000
WTNT41 KNHC 021446
TCDAT1
 
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
 
OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS
TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN
TO THE SOUTH.  BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT.
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS.  THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.
 
THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 015/27 KT.  OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
AFTER PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA...THE CYCLONE 
SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE
ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY 
AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...AS WELL
AS GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 38.7N  60.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 42.4N  59.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 46.4N  53.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 49.6N  43.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  04/1200Z 52.0N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  05/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN