000 WTNT41 KNHC 281432 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011 AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT OPHELIA HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 52 KT AND THE HIGHEST BELIEVABLE SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS WERE 40 TO 45 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT. THE STORM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF OPHELIA IS NOT IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING AS MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT GUIDANCE. FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD OR 340/03. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST REASONING OR TO THE FORECAST ITSELF. OPHELIA SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...TODAY AND TOMORROW. BY 72 HOURS OR SO...A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...OPHELIA IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 18.7N 59.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 19.5N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 20.9N 61.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 22.5N 61.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 24.2N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 28.5N 62.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 36.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 45.0N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH