000
WTNT41 KNHC 252043
TCDAT1
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
500 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED
OPHELIA AND FOUND A SMALL...WEAK CIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED NEAR THIS CENTER...THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION IS OVER 150 N MI TO THE EAST.  THE CYCLONE LACKS
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA.  THEREFORE
ADVISORIES ON OPHELIA ARE BEING TERMINATED AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT CENTER...WHICH IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A NEW CIRCULATION CENTER COULD EVENTUALLY FORM IN
THE DEEP CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE EAST.  THIS NEW CENTER IS
PROBABLY THE ONE THAT IS DEPICTED AS MOVING TO HIGHER LATITUDES BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS.  IF THIS OCCURS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
REGENERATION OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC.  IN ANY
EVENT...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS 
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 18.5N  60.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  26/0600Z 19.0N  62.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/1800Z 19.5N  63.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH