000
WTNT41 KNHC 290246
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011
 
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...JOSE HAD THE CLASSIC APPEARANCE...ALBEIT
QUITE COMPACT...OF A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE IN RADAR DATA
FROM BERMUDA. SINCE THAT TIME JOSE HAS LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE SMALL CYCLONE STILL HAS
VERY TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS OF SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION
SPIRALING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER.  ALTHOUGH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE T2.0/30 KT...THE
INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 35 KT GIVEN THE TIGHT SPIRAL
BAND APPEARANCE NOTED IN VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/18 KT. JOSE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD LEVEL OFF SOON
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AS A RESULT OF NO DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COMPACT CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED
NORTH-SOUTH ALONG 55W LONGITUDE. BY 24 HOURS...JOSE SHOULD BECOME A
SHALLOW REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER VERY COLD WATER...AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN.

AFTER PASSING BRIEFLY THROUGH A REGION OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE...JOSE IS NOW MOVING INTO A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST 
AND AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THESE
TWO CONVERGING STREAMS OF AIR AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...ALONG
WITH SSTS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 26C IN 12-18 HOURS...SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN
OF THIS COMPACT CYCLONE...WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY 36 HOURS
WHEN THE REMNANT LOW WILL BE OVER SUB-20C WATER TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 35.0N  65.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 37.8N  64.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 41.3N  62.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART