000
WTNT41 KNHC 282043
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011
 
JOSE REMAINS A SMALL AND STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE
PERSISTENT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 1334 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED
A COUPLE OF UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF ABOVE 35 KT. ALSO...WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE PAST HOUR ON
BERMUDA AND ALSO BY A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 30 NMI NORTH OF BERMUDA.
GIVEN THE COARSE RESOLUTION OF ASCAT DATA AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE...THE COMBINATION OF THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT. ASIDE FROM THE EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FORECAST...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
CIRCULATION OF JOSE QUICKLY BECOMING DEFORMED AND DISSIPATING IN A
DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE AND
INDICATES DISSIPATION WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
JOSE APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 360/14.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REGARDING THE TRACK.  JOSE SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST PRIOR TO DISSIPATION
AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 33.2N  65.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 35.7N  65.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 39.7N  63.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART