000
WTNT41 KNHC 281437
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112011
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2011
 
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF JOSE IN RECENT
HOURS.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN RE-DEVELOPING NEAR AND EAST OF THE
CENTER...BUT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IRENE HAS PREVENTED ANY BURST FROM LASTING
TOO LONG. EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY WAS NEAR
35 KT...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CLOUD PATTERN...
THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IT WOULD NOT
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT WEAKENING AS THE CIRCULATION OF JOSE
BECOMES DEFORMED.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DISSIPATION WITHIN 24-36
HOURS IN PART BECAUSE OF THE SHEAR...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS LIKELIHOOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/12.  JOSE IS MOVING NORTHWARD
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.  AFTER WEAKENING...THE REMNANTS OF JOSE SHOULD TURN NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE LOSING ITS
IDENTITY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 31.5N  65.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 33.6N  66.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 36.6N  65.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH