000
WTNT41 KNHC 281200
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112011
800 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2011
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF BERMUDA HAS MAINTAINED ENOUGH
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...THE LOW HAS EXPERIENCED SEVERAL BURSTS
OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH ANOTHER BURST NOW BEGINNING JUST EAST OF
THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED TO 2.0 AND
SUPPORT INITIATING ADVISORIES.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35
KT...BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM OVERNIGHT WHICH SUGGESTED THE
MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 35 KT. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR
OF 40-50 KT OVER THE CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF
HURRICANE IRENE...IS HAMPERING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR COULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DISSIPATION WITHIN
36 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE
OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEFORE LOSING
ITS IDENTITY.
 
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE CYCLONE TO BERMUDA...THE BERMUDA WEATHER
SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1200Z 30.8N  65.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 32.4N  66.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 35.0N  66.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE