000
WTNT41 KNHC 301442
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT
ISLA LOBOS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ARLENE HAS MADE LANDFALL
ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO.  THE STATION REPORTED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 993 MB AS THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE NORTH...AND
BASED ON THIS AND A JUST-RECEIVED AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.  SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THE VORTEX
IS TILTED SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHT...AS THE APPARENT CENTER IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SOUTH OF THE CENTER LOCATION INDICATED BY THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
 
ARLENE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FITS AND STARTS...WITH AN OVERALL MOTION
OF 270/6.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE U. S.
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL MEXICO IN 24-36 HR.
 
ARLENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER EASTERN MEXICO...WITH THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO BY 36 HR.  SEVERAL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO IN 24-48 HR...WHICH MOVES WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF ARLENE OR
A NEW SYSTEM IS SPECULATIVE AT THIS TIME.  EITHER WAY...SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EXPECTED PATH.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 21.6N  97.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 21.4N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  01/1200Z 21.2N 100.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

000
WTNT41 KNHC 301442
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT
ISLA LOBOS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ARLENE HAS MADE LANDFALL
ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO.  THE STATION REPORTED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 993 MB AS THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE NORTH...AND
BASED ON THIS AND A JUST-RECEIVED AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.  SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THE VORTEX
IS TILTED SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHT...AS THE APPARENT CENTER IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SOUTH OF THE CENTER LOCATION INDICATED BY THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
 
ARLENE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FITS AND STARTS...WITH AN OVERALL MOTION
OF 270/6.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE U. S.
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL MEXICO IN 24-36 HR.
 
ARLENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER EASTERN MEXICO...WITH THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO BY 36 HR.  SEVERAL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO IN 24-48 HR...WHICH MOVES WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF ARLENE OR
A NEW SYSTEM IS SPECULATIVE AT THIS TIME.  EITHER WAY...SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EXPECTED PATH.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 21.6N  97.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 21.4N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  01/1200Z 21.2N 100.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN