000 WTNT41 KNHC 300848 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011 400 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS MAKING LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR CABO ROJO. WHILE ASCAT DATA SHOWED WINDS NO HIGHER THAN ABOUT 40 KT AROUND 0312 UTC...BANDING HAS INCREASED NOTABLY SINCE THAT TIME IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BOTH 55 KT AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO THAT VALUE. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER IN THE STRONG BANDING FEATURES. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. A RAPID DECAY IS LIKELY LATER TODAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. ARLENE ACCELERATED AS IT APPROACHED THE COAST OVERNIGHT...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER AND DECOUPLE FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS THE FORMER IS BLOCKED BY THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE. BECAUSE OF THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS ARLENE DISSIPATED BY 36 HOURS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BASED UPON THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42055. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 21.5N 97.3W 55 KT 65 MPH... 12H 30/1800Z 21.4N 98.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 01/0600Z 21.0N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN 000 WTNT41 KNHC 300848 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011 400 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS MAKING LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR CABO ROJO. WHILE ASCAT DATA SHOWED WINDS NO HIGHER THAN ABOUT 40 KT AROUND 0312 UTC...BANDING HAS INCREASED NOTABLY SINCE THAT TIME IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BOTH 55 KT AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO THAT VALUE. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER IN THE STRONG BANDING FEATURES. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. A RAPID DECAY IS LIKELY LATER TODAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. ARLENE ACCELERATED AS IT APPROACHED THE COAST OVERNIGHT...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER AND DECOUPLE FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS THE FORMER IS BLOCKED BY THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE. BECAUSE OF THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS ARLENE DISSIPATED BY 36 HOURS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BASED UPON THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42055. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 21.5N 97.3W 55 KT 65 MPH... 12H 30/1800Z 21.4N 98.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 01/0600Z 21.0N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN