000
WTNT41 KNHC 020837
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
500 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010

TOMAS HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TROPICAL
STORM.  OVERNIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CIRCULATION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEEN INCREASING NEAR
THE CENTER.  ENHANCED IR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS SOME BANDING
FEATURES DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  ON THE FINAL PASS
OF AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE OUTBOUND FROM THE CENTER
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...THE MAXIMUM UNFLAGGED SFMR-MEASURED
SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS 44 KT.  THE INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
UPWARD...TO 45 KT...ON THIS ADVISORY.  TOMAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND ALTHOUGH
SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY IMPACT THE SYSTEM...THE
SHEAR IS NOT LIKELY TO BECOME VERY STRONG FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
BRINGS TOMAS TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE RELIABLE LGEM GUIDANCE BUT BELOW THE GFDL FORECAST
INTENSITY PREDICTION.
 
BASED ON THE HURRICANE HUNTER FIXES...THE STORM CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD...OR ABOUT 270/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS REMAINS THE SAME AS BEFORE.  TOMAS SHOULD BE
STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY 72-96 HOURS...THE
FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHOULD TURN THE
DEEPENING CYCLONE SHARPLY NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
TROUGH COULD SWING NORTHEASTWARD AND NOT COMPLETELY PICK UP TOMAS. 
THEREFORE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD
LINGER NEAR NORTHERN HISPANIOLA FOR A DAY OR TWO...BEFORE THE
WESTERLIES EVENTUALLY CARRY IT FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THAT
POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 13.5N  72.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 13.7N  73.1W    50 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 14.0N  74.4W    55 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 14.4N  75.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 15.0N  75.8W    65 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 16.3N  75.2W    80 KT
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N  72.5W    70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     07/0600Z 21.5N  70.0W    60 KT...OVER WATER
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH