000
WTNT41 KNHC 281458
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162010
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED A
SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE SURFACE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY.  SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CUBA AND
TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.  BY 48
HOURS...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE.  DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN 72 HOURS OR SOONER AS THE MODELS
DEPICT A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CAROLINAS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 020/9.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OCCURING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER.  IF THIS STRUCTURE PERSISTS...THE TRACK OF THE CENTER
WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 20.6N  82.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 21.6N  81.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 23.5N  80.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 26.5N  80.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 31.0N  78.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH