000
WTNT41 KNHC 211445
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  54
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 21 2010
 
IGOR IS VERY CLOSE TO LOSING ALL ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
WILL LIKELY BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 65 KT...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  ASCAT
DATA SHOULD BE RECEIVED FROM NEAR THE HURRICANE SOON...AND A
RE-ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY WILL BE MADE AT THAT TIME.  IGOR
COULD STILL GAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD PAST NEWFOUNDLAND BUT THEN ALL THE MODELS SHOW
GRADUAL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NEAR GREENLAND.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND GUIDANCE
PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

IGOR IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AT 40 KT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IGOR WILL BE TURNING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS IT SWINGS AROUND NEWFOUNDLAND AND MOVES THROUGH THE
DAVIS STRAITS.  THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN
MARKEDLY FROM 36-96 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS AND POSSIBLY MERGES WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF QUEBEC. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND REMAINS RELATIVELY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 46.2N  52.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 50.2N  49.4W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 55.3N  48.5W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 59.8N  51.6W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 62.7N  57.8W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 63.5N  61.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 62.0N  60.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART