000
WTNT41 KNHC 260856
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010
 
AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS AROUND THE EYE
HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING IN COVERAGE.  BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
5.0 FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS EXCELLENT EXCEPT TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AS THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 10 KT ACCORDING TO ANALYSES FROM
UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL.  THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW DANIELLE TO
INTENSIFY TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER
72 HOURS...INCREASING SHEAR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH ALONG WITH COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD AND IS NOW A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH 24 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO
THOSE MODELS BEYOND THAT TIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/14...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  DURING THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.  OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DANIELLE WILL BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD TO THE
SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN 30N AND 35N.
AFTER THAT TIME...DANIELLE WILL TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE
MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  SOME DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN THE DETAILS OF HOW QUICKLY DANIELLE TURNS NORTHWARD...AND
IF AN ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT
FOR THIS CYCLE...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET FARTHEST EAST AND THE GFS
AND NOGAPS FARTHEST WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT THROUGH 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND FASTER TOWARD THE NEW MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT
IS TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 23.4N  54.9W    90 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 24.5N  56.3W    95 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 25.8N  58.1W   100 KT
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 27.0N  59.9W   100 KT
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 28.3N  61.1W   105 KT
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 31.5N  61.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     30/0600Z 35.5N  60.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     31/0600Z 38.0N  59.5W    75 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN