000
WTNT41 KNHC 302036
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
400 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010
 
AFTER A FEW HOURS OF A TRACK BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
EARLIER TODAY...AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT
ALEX HAS TURNED BACK TO THE WEST AT AN AVERAGE SPEED OF ABOUT 11
KNOTS. THE RIDGE THAT WAS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE HAS MATERIALIZED AND IS NOW FORCING ALEX TO TAKE A LEFT
TURN DIRECTLY TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST AND ALEX SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER MEXICO.
 
ALEX IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND BOTH HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND A GREAT DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK...LIKE THE ONE THAT OCCURRED
THIS MORNING...WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS COAST. THEREFORE...WE WOULD RATHER KEEP THE HURRICANE
WARNINGS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME.
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT ALEX IS BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE
WINDS HAVE INCREASED. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED SO FAR
ARE 96 KNOTS AND SFMR REPORTED 81 KNOTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT ON VISIBLE IMAGES
AND IS SURROUNDED BY A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW ALEX TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 24.5N  96.8W    80 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 24.5N  98.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 24.5N 100.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 24.5N 102.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 48HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA