000
WTNT41 KNHC 042056
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
400 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED THIS
AFTERNOON...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED
WITH STRONG BANDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.  AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 53 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 48 KT...AND A FALLING MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 996 MB.  THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF
ABOUT 50 KT...AND THUS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED IDA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...AND
IS NOW 300/5.  IDA IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THIS AFTERNOON ON THE STORM SLOWLY MOVING
TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN RIDGE.  ONLY THE UKMET MODEL NOW KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER
WATER WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION.  THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING...IDA DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH MORE TIME LEFT BEFORE IT MOVES OVER NICARAGUA.   THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...
SHOWING SOME STRENGTHENING OF IDA...AND THEN REDUCED THEREAFTER DUE
TO THE EFFECTS OF LAND.  IN A FEW DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME REINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER... IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES FROM EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM IDA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 12.0N  82.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 12.4N  83.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 13.0N  84.1W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 13.7N  84.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 14.5N  85.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 16.0N  85.5W    25 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 18.0N  86.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     09/1800Z 20.5N  86.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH