000
WTNT41 KNHC 021447
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009
1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA SHOW THAT ERIKA IS A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM.  THERE ARE
MULTIPLE SWIRLS APPARENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING IN THE
LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WITH A MEAN CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION.  THE SFMR EARLIER REPORTED WINDS OF ABOUT 35
KT...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES...SO THAT VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...WITH CIMSS
DIAGNOSING ABOUT 15-20 KT OF SHEAR. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE SHEAR DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG OVER THE SYSTEM WITH SOUTH OR
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REPORTED AT 200 MB OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-AIR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE AND ST. MAARTEN
SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS PRIMARILY COMING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 300 MB-250 MB...AND THIS IS APPARENTLY UNDERCUTTING THE
OUTFLOW LAYERS AT 200 MB AND ABOVE.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH RELAXATION OF THIS SHEAR...AND ACTUALLY SHOW IT
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  DESPITE ALL THIS
SHEAR...ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM TO NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS.  THIS REINTENSIFICATION 
DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AND THE NHC FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER THAN
THE GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THE POSSIBLE SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ERIKA DISSIPATED.

A 24-HOUR MOTION IS ABOUT 275/9. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS
PREDICTED TO RESUME AS THE STORM MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN A FEW DAYS...AND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL
CONSENSUS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF ERIKA REMAINING WEAK. IT
SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT...OVERALL...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE
TRACK FORECAST.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 16.5N  60.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 16.9N  61.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 17.4N  62.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 18.0N  64.2W    45 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 18.6N  65.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 20.0N  68.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N  71.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     07/1200Z 23.5N  73.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN