000
WTNT41 KNHC 291433
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012009
1100 AM AST FRI MAY 29 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED...WITH INCREASING WESTERLY
SHEAR DISPLACING THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB CONFIRM
THIS DEGRADATION IN APPEARANCE...BUT WINDS ARE CONSERVATIVELY KEPT
AT 30 KT THIS ADVISORY BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT ESTIMATES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH AN
ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 065/16...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE.
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUGGESTS A
FURTHER ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED COLDER WATERS...AND THE FORECAST TRACK
TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER EVEN COLDER WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 
IN ADDITION...THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE MAJORITY
OF GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN 12 HOURS
AND ABSORPTION BY THE FRONTAL ZONE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 39.6N  64.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 41.2N  61.2W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN