000
WTNT41 KNHC 150840
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
500 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

THE DEPRESSION BASICALLY CONSISTS OF TWO CURVED BANDS OF CONVECTION
THAT ARE RATHER DISTANT FROM THE APPARENT CENTER.  IT IS DIFFICULT
TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER IS...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE VERY
CLOSE TO THE HONDURAS COAST.  THE SYSTEM HAS EFFECTIVELY AVOIDED
BOTH QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT OVERNIGHT...AND SINCE THE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS HAVEN'T CHANGED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
25 KT.  AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM DOESN'T MOVE OVER LAND...ATMOSPHERIC
AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR STRENGTHENING.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPEND LESS TIME OVER WATER. 
HOWEVER...IF THE DEPRESSION WERE TO TAKE A TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...IT MAY NEVER BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM AT ALL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5.  A LARGE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE FOR THE
ENSUING NHC FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AGAIN AS THE GUIDANCE HAS
GENERALLY BEEN TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 16.0N  84.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N  85.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.0N  86.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 15.9N  87.6W    35 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 15.7N  89.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N  91.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH