000
WTNT41 KNHC 281451
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT KYLE IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO A LESS
TROPICAL-LOOKING SYSTEM.  THE CLOUD BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE CENTER LOOKS SOMEWHAT FRONTAL...SO KYLE IS PROBABLY
STARTING TO MAKE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  EVEN THOUGH DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...IN
PARTICULAR DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS WHICH SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 75 KT JUST BEFORE 12Z. 
DATA BUOYS 44011 AND 44024 ARE VERY NEAR THE PROJECTED PATH OF
KYLE...AND THESE PLATFORMS SHOULD BE USEFUL IN ASSESSING THE
STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE LATER TODAY.  NONETHELESS...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB 15 DEG C WATERS LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
LARGELY ELIMINATE THE OCEANIC ENERGY SOURCE.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS WELL...WITH THE THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS THE CYCLONE BECOMING
NEGLIGIBLE IN 48 HOURS OR SO.  IN FACT THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  

LATEST FIXES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
020/21...IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND AND IS A LITTLE EAST OF
THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.  THIS IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN.

IF THE CURRENT TREND IN THE TRACK OF KYLE CONTINUES...THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR MAINE COULD BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 40.4N  67.7W    70 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 43.3N  66.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 46.3N  64.6W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 48.5N  63.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 50.0N  63.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 51.5N  63.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE