000
WTNT41 KNHC 260257
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008
 
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WHICH WAS INVESTIGATING KYLE
EARLIER THIS EVENING MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF
994 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT.  THERE WERE ALSO A
FEW SFMR RETRIEVALS NEAR 55 KT...BUT THE FLIGHT METEOROLOGIST ON
BOARD ESTIMATED THAT THESE MEASUREMENTS WERE LIKELY ABOUT 10 KT TOO
HIGH. IN ADDITION...A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION USING THE SHEAR PATTERN
WOULD YIELD A DATA-T NUMBER OF 3.0. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION
UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.

THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIX INDICATES THAT KYLE HAS ACCELERATED AND IS
NOW MOVING AT 010/11. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL HIGH JUST EAST OF BERMUDA AND THE LARGE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  MODEL AGREEMENT IS
EXCEPTIONAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT
WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

KYLE IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AS
DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...DURING WHICH ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH AFTER THAT AND KYLE WILL
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES OVER WARM WATERS AT A FAIRLY SPEEDY CLIP. THE FORECAST
INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN BY THE LGEM...HWRF...FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND CONTINUITY. HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS
MAKE KYLE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. KYLE WILL THEN CROSS NORTH OF THE
GULF STREAM AFTER 48 HOURS AND SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BEGIN ONCE
KYLE MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 72 HOURS WITH THE
PROCESS COMPLETED BY 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5...THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK.  IN
ADDITION...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 24.8N  68.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 26.5N  68.1W    50 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 29.2N  68.7W    60 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 32.4N  68.9W    65 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 36.3N  68.3W    70 KT
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 44.5N  65.5W    60 KT...INLAND...NOVA SCOTIA
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 50.0N  60.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG