000
WTNT41 KNHC 252033
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008
 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PLAGUED PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER-DEFINED LOW CLOUD
CIRCULATION THAN EARLIER TODAY.  ALTHOUGH THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL
A BIT ELONGATED...THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED 1000 FT WINDS AS HIGH
AS 51 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.  THEREFORE THE
CYCLONE IS BEING CLASSIFIED AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR THIS
FIRST ADVISORY.  SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
THE STRENGTHENING OF KYLE BUT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MORE OR LESS AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH OR 010/7.  HOWEVER THE
EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS PROBABLY DUE TO SOME REFORMATION OF
THE CENTER TOWARD THE DEEP CONVECTION.  A MAINLY NORTHWARD TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND A DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.  THROUGH
THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS REFLECTED IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN CANADA.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND A LITTLE
TO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 23.5N  68.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 25.2N  68.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 27.7N  68.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 31.0N  69.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 34.5N  69.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 43.0N  67.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 50.0N  60.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     30/1800Z 53.0N  53.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS