000
WTNT41 KNHC 222027
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008
 
THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN RAIN BANDS MOSTLY OVER WATER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE A
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER...FAY
COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.
 
THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT
4 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD HOLD FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...FORCING FAY TO CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST
TO COLLAPSE AND FAY COULD BEGIN TO MEANDER. BY THEN...FAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW. 
 
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 29.8N  83.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 29.9N  84.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 30.2N  85.9W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 30.5N  87.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 31.0N  89.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 31.5N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     27/1800Z 32.0N  91.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA