000
WTNT41 KNHC 190902
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
 
SFMR...DROPSONDE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT FAY
DID NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH...IF AT ALL...BEFORE COMING ASHORE.  A
DROPSONDE REPORTED A SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT...AND THERE WERE
BELIEVABLE 49 KT WINDS FROM THE SFMR. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
OBSERVED WAS 61 KT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS
SET AT 50 KT.  THERE WERE A FEW SFMR WINDS ABOUT 5 KT HIGHER THAT
MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN CORRECT...BUT IN ANY EVENT FAY DIDN'T
MAKE IT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  FAY SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT
CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IF THE CENTER DOES EMERGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS FORECAST...FAY WILL FIND ITSELF IN A MORE FAVORABLE
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-AIR PATTERN IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND SLIGHT
RESTRENGTHENING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/8.  OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO A CONSENSUS
HAS BEEN BUILDING ON FAY BEING TRAPPED BENEATH A MIGRATORY
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERLIES...WITH EVEN THE GFDL
BEGINNING TO BACK OFF ON A PROLONGED NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE
GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SHARPER SLOWDOWN AND TURN TO
THE WEST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. 
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 25.9N  81.7W    50 KT...LANDFALL
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 27.0N  81.3W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 28.3N  80.9W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 29.3N  80.7W    35 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 30.0N  81.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 30.5N  82.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     23/0600Z 31.0N  83.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     24/0600Z 31.0N  85.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN