000
WTNT41 KNHC 011436
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
ARTHUR'S CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND CONTINUES TO
BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  BASED ON THE OVERALL DECREASE IN
ORGANIZATION...ARTHUR HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND
ARTHUR COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. 
 
ARTHUR HAS TURNED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 250/07.  A GENERAL WESTWARD-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS KEEPING ARTHUR...OR ITS
REMNANTS...OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE LITTLE CHANCE
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 
 
DESPITE THE DOWNGRADE TO A DEPRESSION AND ADDITIONAL FORECAST
WEAKENING...ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER GUATEMALA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND BELIZE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 18.1N  90.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 17.9N  91.6W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 17.7N  92.5W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 17.5N  93.6W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 17.4N  94.7W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN