000
WTNT41 KNHC 010258
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008
 
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...BUT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS WELL REMOVED FROM THAT LOCATION.  THE BAND OF CONVECTION JUST
OFFSHORE TO THE EAST OF BELIZE WENT THROUGH A BRIEF LULL AROUND 22Z
BUT HAS SINCE PERKED UP AGAIN...WITH RATHER COLD INFRARED CLOUD
TOPS COLLOCATED WITH NUMEROUS LONG-RANGE LIGHTNING RETURNS.  OTHER
LARGE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE PERSISTED INLAND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...HIGHLIGHTING THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND INLAND FLOODING.
ESSENTIALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING RECENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ALMOST CERTAINLY OCCURRING IN THE BAND EAST OF BELIZE.  DATA FROM
THE 2330Z QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THAT AREA JUST ARRIVED AND SUGGEST THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 35 KT.

LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF ARTHUR SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 OR 6 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT IT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN HOW STRONG ARTHUR WILL BE OR HOW
LONG IT WILL LAST.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS MUDDY AT BEST...BUT
MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ARTHUR OR ITS REMNANTS TO SPEND MOST OF
THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO OVER LAND..JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.  ONLY THE GFDL SHOWS THE CENTER EMERGING BACK OVER WATER. 
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND STAYS JUST INLAND FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  AS A
RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD AND
CALLS FOR ARTHUR TO SOON BE A DEPRESSION AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO.  IF...HOWEVER...THE ACTUAL TRACK ENDS UP JUST
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...AND THE CENTER OF ARTHUR EMERGES OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH IN A DAY OR TWO.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 18.4N  89.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 18.4N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 18.4N  91.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 18.3N  92.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 18.3N  93.6W    30 KT...NEAR COAST
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 18.2N  95.0W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 18.0N  96.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB