000
WTNT41 KNHC 312044
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008
 
ARTHUR REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DESPITE BEING CENTERED OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ARTHUR HAS A
LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WHERE MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING. IN ADDITION...NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BASED ON THE CLOUD PATTERN
ARTHUR IS KEPT AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME...BUT
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER
INLAND. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IF THE
CENTER MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
 
ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6
KNOTS.  A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE OR EVEN INLAND OVER MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY KEEPS THE CYCLONE TRAPPED NEAR
OR OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/2100Z 18.4N  88.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 18.7N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 19.0N  91.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 19.0N  93.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N  94.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 18.5N  96.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 18.0N  97.0W    20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/RHOME