000
WTNT41 KNHC 011500
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007
 
DATA PHONED IN FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING NOEL INCLUDE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AND
SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 51 KT.  THESE DATA SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT.  THE CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
ABOUT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS...BUT OVERALL INDICATE THAT
THE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST HAS BEGUN.  THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 020/8.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ADVANCING TOWARD NOEL FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NOEL
NORTHNORTHEASTWARD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
HEADING BUT LESS SO ON THE SPEED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS
A GFS/GFDL/HWRF BLEND.

WITH THE RECENT JUMP OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION...THERE
IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...BEFORE THE WIND SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE.  HOWEVER...
BAROCLINIC ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

AS NOEL IS EXPECTED TO EDGE AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD SOON BE POSSIBLE TO LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 24.5N  77.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 25.8N  76.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 28.4N  74.9W    55 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 32.0N  72.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 36.0N  69.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 46.0N  61.0W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 56.5N  50.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     06/1200Z 67.0N  25.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN