000
WTNT41 KNHC 302058
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007
 
THE CENTER OF NOEL IS STILL CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HAVING SPENT THE DAY MOVING ESSENTIALLY DUE WESTWARD...
ALTHOUGH AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 7 KNOTS. 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION
DERIVED FROM THE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THE CENTER COULD BE A BIT SOUTH OF OUR ADVISORY POSITION. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET TO 35 KT...BASED IN PART ON A
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATION OF 35 KT FROM A DROPSONDE...WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...LAUNCHED BY THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET
THAT HAS BEGUN ITS SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION.

DESPITE THE CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION TODAY...NOEL IS STILL EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AS
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.  WHILE THE VARIOUS
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR
NOEL TO GAIN ANY LATITUDE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS ALONG THE SAME PATH BUT JUST A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  FROM 48 HOURS ON...THE
NEW TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED IN TAKING NOEL QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM EMERGES
BACK OVER WATER NORTH OF CUBA.  AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS IN
CALLING FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WHILE NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY 72
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS.  SOME OF THE MODELS PREDICT THAT NOEL ITSELF WILL
NOT LAST BEYOND ABOUT 3 DAYS...AND INSTEAD CALL FOR NOEL TO BE
ABSORBED WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
FARTHER NORTH.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ASSUME THAT
NOEL WILL REMAIN INTACT AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE.
 
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE
NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS
FROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 21.0N  78.0W    35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 12HR VT     31/0600Z 21.6N  78.8W    35 KT...NEAR S COAST OF CUBA
 24HR VT     31/1800Z 22.6N  79.2W    35 KT...NEAR N COAST OF CUBA
 36HR VT     01/0600Z 24.1N  78.8W    40 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     01/1800Z 26.8N  77.2W    45 KT
 72HR VT     02/1800Z 34.0N  70.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     03/1800Z 41.0N  63.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     04/1800Z 48.5N  56.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA