000
WTNT41 KNHC 282059
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007
 
EARLIER TODAY THE CIRCULATION CENTER REFORMED CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENED...AS CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.  THE POSITION FIXES FROM THE
AIRCRAFT HAVE BOUNCED AROUND A BIT...BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 330/4.  THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT BASED ON SFMR AND
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVATIONS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED
TO THE AREA BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA...BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT IS MOSTLY CONVECTION-FREE.

FOLLOWING THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE HWRF AND GFDL WHICH STILL
PROVIDE THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTIONS.  NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS
AND SLIDES EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS THE MODELS
DIVERGE...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
JOG NEAR OR OVER CUBA...WHILE GFDL AND HWRF HEAD NORTHWARD.  THE
NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS NUDGED TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS/SPECIAL ADVISORY.

EVEN THOUGH NOEL HAS NOTABLY STRENGTHENED TODAY...IT IS NOT CLEAR
HOW MUCH MORE INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR.  THE AMOUNT OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS IS STILL RATHER
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES
STRENGTHENING SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOSTLY OVER WATER IF THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST VERIFIES.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT NOEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO PASSING OVER CUBA. 
THEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WIND SHEAR IMPOSED
BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
 
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE PRONUNCIATION FOR THE THIS STORM'S NAME IS
NOL...WITH A LONG O SOUND AND JUST ONE SYLLABLE...OR EXACTLY LIKE
THE WORD KNOLL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/2100Z 16.8N  71.9W    50 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 17.9N  72.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 19.1N  74.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 20.2N  75.0W    60 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 21.4N  75.8W    45 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     31/1800Z 23.5N  76.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     01/1800Z 26.0N  75.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     02/1800Z 29.0N  73.5W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB