000
WTNT41 KNHC 231428
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

AN 0807 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE
CIRCULATION ARE AT LEAST 35 KT AND SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE A
SUBTROPICAL T-NUMBER OF 2.5 USING THE HEBERT-POTEAT METHOD.  THE
SYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY.  THE
CYCLONE LACKS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WITH MULTIPLE LOW-CLOUD
SWIRLS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER.  HOWEVER...COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE AND VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE OVERTAKING JERRY WITHIN 48 HOURS...SO THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THIS LARGER SYSTEM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
JERRY IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. 
HOWEVER...AS A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH MOVES OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING CURRENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE.  THIS SHOULD PULL JERRY
TOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED.  THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 36.0N  46.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 37.3N  45.8W    40 KT...TROPICAL
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 39.7N  44.0W    45 KT...TROPICAL
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 44.0N  40.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH