000
WTNT41 KNHC 040900
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007
 
AFTER COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT LAST NIGHT...FELIX HAS AGAIN
STRENGTHENED EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...REPORTED BY A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT...HAS FALLEN TO 939 MB.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WAS 148 KT...CORRESPONDING TO 133 KT AT
THE SURFACE...AND A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE BASED ON THE LOW-LAYER
MEAN WIND OF A DROPSONDE PROFILE WAS 132 KT.  ANOTHER DROPSONDE
REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 147 KT...BUT THAT IS NOT LIKELY
REPRESENTATIVE OF A SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND.  THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS BEEN STEADILY BECOMING MORE IMPRESSIVE...INCLUDING
IN THE FEW IMAGES SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 07Z.  SINCE THE
PRESSURE AND WIND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE INDICATING
STRENGTHENING...AND GIVEN THAT OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM THE
MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES ARE APPROACHING 7.0...FELIX COULD
REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS AT ANY TIME PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

FELIX CONTINUES GENERALLY WESTWARD BUT APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN A
LITTLE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 270/14. THE EYE IS
ONLY ABOUT THREE HOURS FROM MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...SO A CONTINUED GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION
IS FORECAST WITH A SLOW BEND TO THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND GFS OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA
THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IT DOES NOT FOLLOW THOSE MODELS IN LATER
BRINGING FELIX OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GIVEN
THAT THIS RELATIVELY SMALL HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST...AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...BUT IS A
LITTLE LOWER DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF FELIX.  IT IS IMPORTANT TO
EMPHASIZE...THAT THIS WILL NOT BE JUST A COASTAL EVENT. VERY HEAVY
RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES COULD OCCUR
WELL INLAND AND MANY HOURS OR DAYS AFTER THIS MORNING'S LANDFALL.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0900Z 14.3N  82.5W   135 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 14.3N  84.5W    85 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N  86.6W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     05/1800Z 14.9N  88.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     06/0600Z 15.4N  90.7W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/0600Z 16.5N  94.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB