000
WTNT41 KNHC 020901
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
 
FELIX HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT.  AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93
KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 984 MB DURING THE LAST EYE PENETRATION
AT ABOUT 0638Z.  IN ADDITION...AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE MEASURED
SURFACE WINDS OF 85 KT DERIVED FROM THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWER
LAYER OF THE SOUNDING.  BASED ON THESE DATA THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS SET TO 85 KT.  WHILE THE EYE HAS NOT YET BECOME DISCERNIBLE IN
CONVENTIONAL GOES INFRARED IMAGERY...IT IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN RADAR
IMAGERY FROM CURACAO AND IN PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A TRMM
OVERPASS AT 0619Z.

FELIX CONTINUES ON A PATH JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST OR 275/16...WITH
STEERING PROVIDED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BUILD
WESTWARD...PREVENTING FELIX FROM GAINING ANY SIGNIFICANT LATITUDE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. 
EVEN THE NOGAPS...AN EARLIER NORTHERN OUTLIER...HAS SHIFTED SOUTH
AND BACK INTO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  BEYOND 72
HOURS...THE MODELS TAKE VARIOUS PATHS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH
THE MOST SOUTHERN SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH...MOSTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE INITIAL MOTION. THE FORECAST AT 4-5 DAYS IS RATHER
UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON JUST HOW MUCH RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AT THAT TIME.

ALL FACTORS POINT TO CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD MAINLY TO REFLECT THE
OVERNIGHT STRENGTHENING JUST OBSERVED...AND SO IS HIGHER THAN MOST
OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  FELIX APPEARS ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A
MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...BUT HOW MUCH LAND IT TRAVERSES
BEYOND 48 HOURS MAKES THE LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST VERY
UNCERTAIN.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 12.8N  68.7W    85 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 13.2N  71.3W    95 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 13.9N  75.0W   105 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 14.6N  78.6W   115 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 15.3N  81.9W   125 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 16.5N  87.0W   120 KT
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N  91.0W    70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  94.5W    70 KT...OVER WATER
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB