000
WTNT41 KNHC 020304
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007
 
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 77 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT
LEVEL OF 7500 FT...AND SURFACE WINDS AROUND 65 KT ON THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB AND A 30 N MI WIDE EYE.  BASED ON THIS...
FELIX HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE.

FELIX HAS MOVED MORE WESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD THROUGH 72 HR...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP FELIX ON A COURSE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST. 
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME.  AFTER
72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SOMEWHAT DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING OVER TEXAS. 
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION
TOWARD SOUTHERN YUCATAN OR CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE GFDL HAS MADE
A SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO JOIN THEM.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS
CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDN BEING SOMEWHAT TO
THE SOUTH OF THAT.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.  IT IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
72 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 96 HR.
 
FELIX CURRENTLY HAS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THUS...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
REASONS THAT FELIX SHOULD NOT STEADILY INTENSIFY UNTIL IT
APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND EXPERIMENTAL LGE MODELS.  THE
RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO CALL
FOR A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...SO IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING IF FELIX WAS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY 72 HR. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR MAY BE DEPENDENT ON A
COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...
BOTH OF WHICH ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FELIX WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 12.7N  66.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 13.2N  69.6W    75 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 14.0N  73.2W    85 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 14.7N  76.6W    90 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 15.4N  79.7W   100 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N  84.5W   110 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 18.0N  88.5W   110 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     07/0000Z 20.5N  92.5W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN