000
WTNT41 KNHC 312049
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING A TROPICAL WAVE
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REPORTED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS UP TO 36 KT. THESE WINDS EQUATE TO ABOUT 30
KT AT THE SURFACE...AND AGREE WELL WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB.  THUS THE SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE
SEASON IS BORN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS BECOMING IMPRESSIVE
WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN.
 
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WIND SHEAR NEAR THE DEPRESSION WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COUPLED WITH THE
WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A RECIPE
FOR AT LEAST SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER MOST OF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS DO NOT STRENGTHEN THE DEPRESSION...AND CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LAND COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.  FOR NOW...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS...AND
MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/14.  GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM.  THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE
ECMWF SOLUTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/2100Z 11.8N  58.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 12.2N  60.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 12.9N  64.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 13.6N  67.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 14.3N  71.1W    50 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 15.3N  78.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 16.0N  83.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     05/1800Z 17.0N  88.0W    75 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA