000
WTNT41 KNHC 102044
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012007
500 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY ABSENT FOR ALMOST 12 HOURS...AS
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVE TAKEN
THEIR TOLL ON ANDREA.  THE CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY TO RETURN
EXCEPT PERHAPS IN INTERMITTENT BURSTS...SO ANDREA COULD BE
DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT.  THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
EDGE GENERALLY SOUTHWARD...AND IT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VERY CLOSE
TO WHERE IT IS NOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UNTIL THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE ON DAY 3.  BY
THAT TIME...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE
CIRCULATION TO HAVE DISSIPATED.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO
ANDREA...TAKE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON DAY 3...AND THEN BECOME THE FOCUS
OF EXTRATROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER NORTH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  THAT COULD HAPPEN IF ANDREA REMAINS A DISTINCT
CIRCULATION LONGER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM
REGARDLESS OF WHAT BECOMES OF ANDREA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 29.6N  79.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 29.2N  79.8W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 29.0N  79.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 29.2N  79.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 29.6N  78.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB