000
FOPZ15 KNHC 240242
PWSEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
0300 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

SAN BLAS       34 96   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)

P VALLARTA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
P VALLARTA     50 91   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

MANZANILLO     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MANZANILLO     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART