000 FOPZ15 KNHC 232100 PWSEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 2100 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 165 KTS...190 MPH...305 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 34 88 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) SAN BLAS 50 21 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SAN BLAS 64 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P VALLARTA 50 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) P VALLARTA 64 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MANZANILLO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MANZANILLO 50 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) MANZANILLO 64 49 X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) L CARDENAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 23 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN