000
FOPZ15 KNHC 010844
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014               
0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
MANZANILLO     34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   4(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
L CARDENAS     34  2   5( 7)   5(12)   5(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   1( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN