000 FOPZ15 KNHC 120234 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 0300 UTC WED OCT 12 2011 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 6 25 38 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X 34 34 23 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 49 35 17 15 NA NA NA HURRICANE 51 25 24 24 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 40 16 14 14 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 10 6 6 5 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 1 2 3 4 NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 40KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 34 12 15(27) 7(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SAN BLAS 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P VALLARTA 34 76 5(81) 3(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) P VALLARTA 50 10 10(20) 4(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) P VALLARTA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 91 1(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MANZANILLO 50 17 1(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MANZANILLO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 6 12(18) 8(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER PASCH