000 FOPZ15 KNHC 110839 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 0900 UTC TUE OCT 11 2011 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 5 36 57 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X X 23 30 19 NA NA TROPICAL STORM X 9 44 13 8 NA NA HURRICANE 99 90 29 22 17 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 13 48 14 9 7 NA NA HUR CAT 2 60 32 10 8 5 NA NA HUR CAT 3 25 10 5 4 4 NA NA HUR CAT 4 1 1 1 1 1 NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 95KT 85KT 50KT 30KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 8(20) 7(27) X(27) X(27) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 2 28(30) 29(59) 3(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) SAN BLAS 50 X 3( 3) 17(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 6 68(74) 11(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) P VALLARTA 50 1 27(28) 17(45) 1(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) P VALLARTA 64 X 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 73 24(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 13 56(69) 3(72) X(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 10(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 34 57 30(87) 2(89) X(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) MANZANILLO 50 5 33(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) MANZANILLO 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 16(18) 19(37) 4(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN