000 FOPZ15 KNHC 102040 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 2100 UTC MON OCT 10 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 3 41 70 NA TROP DEPRESSION X X X 18 29 15 NA TROPICAL STORM X X 4 50 13 3 NA HURRICANE 99 99 96 30 16 12 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 4 24 12 3 2 NA HUR CAT 2 3 15 30 6 4 2 NA HUR CAT 3 65 56 30 8 6 5 NA HUR CAT 4 32 24 11 4 3 3 NA HUR CAT 5 X 1 1 X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 115KT 115KT 100KT 60KT 35KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) CULICAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 10(21) 4(25) X(25) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 2 3( 5) 18(23) 22(45) 8(53) 1(54) X(54) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 6(19) 1(20) X(20) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) P VALLARTA 34 3 11(14) 41(55) 15(70) 3(73) 1(74) X(74) P VALLARTA 50 X 1( 1) 15(16) 13(29) 4(33) 1(34) X(34) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 4 57(61) 31(92) 3(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 1 18(19) 44(63) 7(70) 1(71) 1(72) X(72) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 3( 3) 27(30) 5(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) MANZANILLO 34 4 50(54) 34(88) 4(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) MANZANILLO 50 1 15(16) 42(58) 6(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) MANZANILLO 64 X 2( 2) 22(24) 5(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) L CARDENAS 34 3 6( 9) 9(18) 2(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) L CARDENAS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 10(15) 14(29) 6(35) 1(36) X(36) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 2(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER STEWART