000 FOPZ15 KNHC 100241 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 0300 UTC MON OCT 10 2011 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 24 64 NA TROP DEPRESSION X X X 7 35 17 NA TROPICAL STORM X 3 6 23 22 5 NA HURRICANE 99 97 93 69 20 14 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 24 25 25 23 6 3 NA HUR CAT 2 64 45 34 21 6 4 NA HUR CAT 3 12 25 28 19 6 5 NA HUR CAT 4 X 3 7 6 2 2 NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 90KT 95KT 100KT 105KT 40KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 5(23) X(23) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 11(16) 28(44) 3(47) X(47) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) X(16) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 3 3( 6) 9(15) 21(36) 27(63) 1(64) X(64) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) 1(23) X(23) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 9(12) 33(45) 27(72) 12(84) 1(85) X(85) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 24(37) 13(50) 1(51) X(51) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 7(19) X(19) X(19) MANZANILLO 34 3 8(11) 34(45) 28(73) 12(85) 1(86) X(86) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 26(36) 12(48) X(48) X(48) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) L CARDENAS 34 3 4( 7) 8(15) 11(26) 5(31) 1(32) X(32) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 9(16) 19(35) 1(36) X(36) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) X(16) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH