000 FOPZ15 KNHC 082046 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 2100 UTC SAT OCT 08 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 6 37 NA TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 10 24 NA TROPICAL STORM 16 22 20 13 19 13 NA HURRICANE 84 78 80 86 65 26 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 79 59 49 36 24 7 NA HUR CAT 2 6 15 21 27 20 8 NA HUR CAT 3 X 4 9 18 16 8 NA HUR CAT 4 X X 1 4 5 3 NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 75KT 80KT 90KT 100KT 30KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) X(18) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 19(33) X(33) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 19(29) 17(46) X(46) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 21(28) 24(52) 17(69) X(69) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 11(30) X(30) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 20(25) 27(52) 17(69) X(69) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 13(31) X(31) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 18(28) 12(40) X(40) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 7(25) X(25) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 17(31) X(31) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART