000 FOPZ15 KNHC 062035 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 2100 UTC THU OCT 06 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 X 7 21 TROP DEPRESSION 13 15 8 4 3 11 15 TROPICAL STORM 85 76 66 47 36 28 25 HURRICANE 2 8 25 49 61 54 39 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 7 21 35 39 29 21 HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 9 15 15 11 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 4 6 8 6 HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 2 1 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 75KT 85KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 8(28) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 19(29) 8(37) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 18(28) 9(37) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 16(24) 9(33) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 7(17) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 17(28) 8(36) 2(38) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 16(25) 7(32) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART