000 FOPZ15 KNHC 060849 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 0900 UTC THU OCT 06 2011 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 2 3 1 1 2 10 TROP DEPRESSION 36 25 20 10 5 11 15 TROPICAL STORM 61 68 67 60 49 50 49 HURRICANE 1 4 11 29 45 37 26 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 4 10 23 33 28 21 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 4 8 6 4 HUR CAT 3 X X X 2 3 3 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 65KT 65KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 7(19) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 3(16) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) 6(19) 4(23) 2(25) X(25) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE