000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240846 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010 0900 UTC THU JUN 24 2010 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 2 6 16 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 1 1 7 16 26 TROPICAL STORM 49 38 22 27 51 53 48 HURRICANE 52 61 77 72 41 26 9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 49 50 47 42 29 21 8 HUR CAT 2 2 8 20 20 8 4 1 HUR CAT 3 1 2 8 9 3 1 X HUR CAT 4 X X 1 2 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 70KT 80KT 80KT 70KT 65KT 55KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 10(20) 4(24) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 9(20) 4(24) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 6(16) 3(19) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) 2(13) P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG