000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240239 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010 0300 UTC THU JUN 24 2010 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 1 5 16 TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 1 2 9 22 TROPICAL STORM 48 24 23 19 29 40 46 HURRICANE 52 76 76 80 68 46 16 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 49 59 47 41 39 31 13 HUR CAT 2 2 14 19 23 18 11 2 HUR CAT 3 1 3 8 12 10 4 1 HUR CAT 4 X X 1 3 2 X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 75KT 80KT 85KT 85KT 80KT 65KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 15(28) 3(31) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 9(16) 13(29) 3(32) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ACAPULCO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 7(17) 12(29) 2(31) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) P MALDONADO 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 5(15) 7(22) 2(24) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) P ANGEL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) HUATULCO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN